https://youtu.be/eZqUsRv2lmk

I saw this on a youtube channel regarding property investment that I follow, but it originally came from http://Domain.com.au and you know I love facts and figures, so I found this very interesting and totally worth sharing.

𓅦 Unless you’ve got your head in the sand, it’s safe to say we’re now in a property price downturn, however looking at the first chart here, you can see our most recent upswing lasted approximately 7 Quarters, but it was the steepest incline we’ve seen.

The thing to note in the second chart is you can see our downturn has been 1 Quarter already, and most downturns barely last 6 quarters nor went past 10% (for combined capitals – with Sydney and Melbourne usually taking the full brunt of the force).

See below the facts in italics, the following downturns last usually one-quarter of the length of the preceding upswing, so history suggests we might see only 2-3 quarters of downturn before we upswing once again.

Another fact here is that the numbers that are used are usually around 2 months behind what’s happening on the ground. We saw the uncertainty start to come in around February with the anticipation of interest rate rises, but it wasn’t until around late April when the downturn was really felt with the pending election and the consecutive monthly interest rate rises.

If we saw the downturn roughly around April, the end of October marks the end of the 2nd quarter…

𝘋𝘰𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯’𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘢𝘭𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘈𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘢’𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘣𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘤𝘺𝘤𝘭𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵:

𝘏𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝒅𝒐 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝘨𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘰𝘰𝘮 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘣𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘩𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘴, 𝘸𝘦 𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘥 𝘰𝘧 𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴 (𝘲𝘶𝘪𝘵𝘦 𝘰𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘨), 𝘧𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘥 𝘣𝘺 𝘢 𝘴𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘳 𝘧𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘨.
𝘖𝘯 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦, 𝘢𝘯 𝘶𝘱𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦 32.7% 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩 𝘵𝘰 𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘬, 𝘴𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 2.75 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴.
𝘖𝘯 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦, 𝘢 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 3.0% 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘬 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩, 𝘴𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 0.75 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴.
𝘖𝘯 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦, 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘰𝘯𝘦-𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘥𝘶𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘱𝘴𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨.

(above source: Domain)

The issue with all the facts available is that people try to pick the bottom of the market, the trick is not to try. If you find the home you like, buy it, you might not find the same home again. Yes, we might see prices in 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 drop up to 8%, however, in the long run, the market will turn around again and there’ll be more buyers and more competition and you’ll be fighting to buy. There’s still a shortage of rentals around the country and the market is a supply and demand situation, so the downturn won’t last forever.

Source: https://www.domain.com.au/news/will-this-property-price-downturn-be-different-to-the-last-1161744/

Source: https://www.domain.com.au/research/can-we-learn-from-previous-price-cycles-1160395/