Ninja in a Blazer – 20th October 2022

Ninja in a Blazer – 20th October 2022

October 19, 2022 Uncategorised 0

I think we’re officially on the upturn in the market. That’s not to say we’re at the bottom of the price correction, but the price correction has started to slow. Sydney and Melbourne which had dropped by 6% quarter-on-quarter have ticked up to 5%, and the interest rate increases have slowed which means people will begin to get more comfortable with their borrowing capacity and where they can buy for their budget.

Personally, trying to time the bottom of the market might help you save $20,000, but if you miss it and the market kicks again – you’ll end up paying $50,000 more. I’m already seeing buyers coming out and making offers to secure homes again, if you’re not making offers, you wont buy at any price, so if the perfect home comes along – please don’t worry about what any agent is telling you on price, make an offer, you just never know your luck. There won’t be as many forced sales now as there will be in 2 years with all the 2% fixed rate loans coming out of their fixed 2-year period and their mortgages double overnight however, the prices are unlikely to be as low as they are now.

I still believe that in May 2023 we will see the interest rates start to come down as they’ll probably want to kick-start the economy again.

The government want us to spend money at Christmas, to keep the retail workers at work over Christmas, hence the slowing of the rates in the lead-up. They’ve slammed the breaks on the economy as hard as they can, but they don’t want to kill the economy.

We had the fastest increase in house prices last year. So as you’d expect, we’ve had the fastest decrease on record to match. However, as you can see the drops barely made it past 10% in the past. It might beat that due to the increase, but we’ll probably see fewer people selling in this time.

The data we see here is usually a few months behind what’s actually happening, and as we’ve been saying, we’re definitely closer to 10% already, which makes me think we’re probably pretty close to the bottom of the market right now.

At the peak of the market, roughly February-April house sales were pushing 1.7-1.9x what they had sold in the last few years 2019-2020, now we’re starting to see these prices closer to 1.3-1.5x what they sold for 3-4 years ago.

The below shows the slight uptick in quarterly value growth for both Melbourne and Sydney, now this could be due to the fact that there’s not as many properties selling.

If you’re in Perth, you’ll be starting to see declines in prices as the interest rates have gone up, Adelaide is also starting to follow suit.

I follow a lot of people and websites for information, you can draw your own conclusion from the information, and much of the numbers are dependent on the information that’s coming in, which again can be delayed. As you can see from the above Macrobusiness.com.au, and Michael Yardney (below) are two great sources of factual information that I read and follow for information for me to interpret.

The below chart is broken down to weekly, which I don’t care about, monthly is interesting, but quarterly is really where we can see the most accurate information.

The above information is my personal opinion and you should seek the correct financial advice before making any decisions.

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Brad Shipway Property